06/26/2025
$TSLA Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript Summary
Elon Musk discusses the progress of Tesla's factories and the potential for improvement. He also mentions the success of Autopilot and AI, with over 0.5 billion miles driven and a 10,000 GPU cluster. FSD version 12 is showing promise, using end-to-end AI similar to how humans process information. Musk believes that success in this area could make Tesla the most valuable company in the world. He also mentions the growth of the energy storage business and the success of the Cybertruck.
The production and financial success of the Cybertruck will be challenging due to its advanced technology and unique design. It will take a lot of effort and time to reach volume production and positive cash flow, which is why many new car startups fail. Despite high demand, it will take about a year to 18 months before the Cybertruck becomes a significant positive cash flow contributor. The priority is to make the truck at an affordable price, which is a difficult task.
In conclusion, Tesla is focused on increasing production and maintaining positive cash flow. The company expects to deliver 1.8 million vehicles this year and has the best real world AI team. The CFO also notes that Q3 saw record profits in the energy business and operational excellence despite planned factory shutdowns. The company's top priority is reducing vehicle costs, and they are investing in R&D and AI technologies. However, they plan to continue making investments through positive cash flow from operations.
In the current year, the company has generated significant operating and free cash flows, with the energy business showing strong growth. The company's pricing strategy takes into account monthly costs for customers, and adjustments have been made due to rising interest rates. A vehicle leasing program has been announced to offset these adjustments. The company is focused on reducing costs, increasing delivery volumes, and investing in future technologies. The CEO acknowledges the challenges of ramping up production for the Cybertruck and cannot make an accurate prediction for 2024 deliveries.
The speaker explains that creating a unique and innovative vehicle like the Cybertruck is extremely difficult because there is nothing to copy. They predict that they will produce 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year by 2025. In terms of the 4680 cell, production has increased 40% in Texas and the focus is on improving quality and reducing costs. The Cybertruck cell, with 10% higher energy, has started production on a separate line in Texas. The focus for the next three quarters is to ramp up production on all four lines, and construction is underway for Phase 2 of the Texas 4680 facility.
The company is focused on maximizing the output of their existing lines in Berlin and Austin, while also working on infrastructure and factory design for Gigafactory Mexico. However, they are cautious about moving forward with full production due to concerns about high interest rates and the impact it may have on consumer affordability. The goal is for the Model Y to become the best selling car in terms of both revenue and unit volume.
The speaker compares the cost of their car to other vehicles and mentions the need for affordable pricing. They do not answer product-related questions and discuss the possibility of achieving a 28% growth in 2024 without any mass market launches. They also mention the impossibility of maintaining a 50% compound growth rate forever. The speaker then talks about the progress of the robotaxi project.
Elon Musk is excited about the progress of autonomy and the self-driving software that drives him around Austin with no interventions. He believes that this software will enable Optimus to do useful things and learn simply by looking. In the long term, this will make the economy infinitely productive, and Tesla is the best company to achieve this. The price of FSD has been dropped to make it more affordable, but it will increase in value over time.
Elon Musk and a company representative discuss the legal liability of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system compared to Mercedes' Level 3 autonomous driving system. They also touch on the limitations of Mercedes' system and the capabilities of Tesla's AI system. They also mention the progress of Tesla's Optimus program and the steps they are taking to make their FSD technology available outside of the US.
Elon Musk explains that currently, self-driving technology is only available in North America due to the need for extensive approval in other countries. He apologizes for this limitation but assures that progress is being made and they are aiming for a significantly lower probability of entry than a human. He also notes that progress in AI tends to follow a log curve and they have experienced this in their self-driving technology as well. The analyst then asks about the ramp-up of the truck production, to which Musk responds that significant volume may not be reached until the third year of production.
Elon Musk and other representatives from the company discuss the anticipated ramp-up for the next-gen platform, which is expected to take 18 months rather than three years. They also mention the unique complexity of the Cybertruck and the challenges it presents in terms of production and profitability. However, they are more optimistic about the ramp-up for the smaller, more conventional vehicle due to its less innovative technologies.
Elon Musk and his team are working to simplify the production of their new vehicle in order to achieve a high production rate. The single location of production makes it easier and more cost-effective to automate. The Cybertruck will have a utilitarian design and will not have excessive features. A question is raised about the pricing and adoption of FSD, with the suggestion that there could be different tiers of the service with varying levels of features and costs.
Elon Musk discusses the potential for fully autonomous vehicles and the positive economic impact they could have. He explains that currently, passenger vehicles are only used for about 10-12 hours per week, but with full autonomy, this could increase to 50 hours per week. This would greatly increase the value of the vehicles without increasing their cost. The discussion then shifts to the company's gross margin in the previous quarter, with a focus on the impact of idle costs and the positive surprise in energy storage.
The company experienced a decent impact on their margins for the quarter due to certain factors, but other factories performed well. Megapack deployment was a key driver for energy margins, but it can be lumpy. The company has been able to decrease vehicle costs by $2,000 in the past year and is constantly making improvements. They are unable to give a specific timeline for the release of their lower-priced product.
The company expects to see benefits from cost reduction efforts, but also faces challenges from recent factory upgrades and the upcoming launch of the Cybertruck. The macroeconomic environment adds uncertainty to the situation. The company remains committed to reducing costs and maintaining or exceeding current trends. The timing of the next-gen product is not yet known. There is significant price elasticity and if the company's cars were priced the same as a RAV4, customers would likely choose the company's cars.
The paragraph discusses how the incentives for electric cars, such as tax credits, are difficult for the average person to access because most people do not have the necessary funds readily available. This is especially true for those who are living paycheck to paycheck and have a lot of debt. The author also mentions that those who are high income may not understand the financial struggles of those earning less. Additionally, the author argues that electric cars are still more expensive than traditional cars when considering immediate and monthly costs. The conversation then shifts to the idea of working from home and how detached from reality those who advocate for it may be.
Elon Musk emphasizes the importance of cost in making cars more affordable for people to buy. He mentions how interest rates can greatly impact the monthly payment and how the difficulty of obtaining credit has increased. He also mentions the existence of digital banks.
The speaker discusses the impact of banks closing and the potential for more to follow, as well as the state of credit card debt. The next question is about the cost per vehicle decreasing in future quarters and the potential factors that could contribute to this. The speaker also clarifies that radar is not currently included in Model Y vehicles in China.
The paragraph discusses the safety benefits of self-driving cars and the use of radar technology. It also mentions the efforts of Tesla to reduce costs through engineering innovations, supply chain improvements, and logistics efficiency. This process is referred to as the "cost attack" and involves a thorough examination of all aspects of production.
Elon Musk discusses the challenges of cost-cutting in the production of Tesla cars, comparing it to a game of pennies. He gives an example of how even a simple sticker or QR code can impact the cost and production process. Despite the difficulties, they continue to make efforts to reduce costs, but there are no easy solutions.
Elon Musk discusses the importance of maintaining the quality and capability of Tesla cars while reducing costs. He compares this to losing weight, where simply cutting off a limb will not solve the problem. He also mentions plans to build a factory in Mexico, but the timing of this depends on interest rates and the strength of the economy. Musk emphasizes the need for interest rates to come down in order for the factory to be built.
Elon Musk reflects on the challenges Tesla faced during the 2009 economic crisis and expresses caution about moving too quickly in uncertain times. He mentions the company's current growth opportunities and potential for expansion in Austin, but acknowledges the limited population and housing crisis in the area. He emphasizes the importance of having a strong team and being prepared for potential economic challenges.
Elon Musk discusses the challenges facing the auto industry due to economic uncertainty and the cyclical nature of car sales. He mentions his personal experience with the 2009 recession and the tough years between 2017 and 2019. He also notes that wars and other global events can impact consumer sentiment and affect car sales. Musk expresses uncertainty about the future and hopes for lower interest rates to help accelerate growth. The call ends with thanks to participants for their questions.
This summary was generated with AI and may contain some inaccuracies.