$PAYX Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript Summary

PAYX

Dec 22, 2023

The Paychex Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call began with the operator introducing the speakers and providing instructions for the call. John Gibson, the company's CEO, then gave a brief update on the business highlights for the second quarter, followed by CFO Bob Schrader providing a financial update. The company had solid results for the first half of the fiscal year, with strong performance in various sectors. The demand for their HR technology and advisory solutions remained strong in light of the challenging business environment. Paychex is seen as a trusted partner for businesses facing challenges such as the tight labor market and rising healthcare costs.

The selling season for mid-market HCM and PEO teams is going well and in-line with expectations, with strong pipelines and retention rates. The PEO business has seen continued momentum and a shift towards the PEO offering, which has a positive impact on customer lifetime value. The company took actions to help the PEO recover from last year's challenges, including redesigning health offerings and improving sales execution. The insurance enrollment is underway and the PEO team is being praised for their hard work and success. The macro and labor environment remains challenging for small and mid-sized businesses.

The Small Business Employment Watch shows moderate job growth and wage inflation, indicating a stable macro environment due to the actions taken by the Fed. Some softening in seasonal hiring has been observed, but there are no signs of an economic downturn. Paychex is prepared to take action if necessary and has a strong track record of navigating changes in the economic environment. The company is investing in AI and exploring its potential to improve efficiency and customer experience, and has partnered with Visier to offer new benchmarking reports and HR analytics solutions to clients.

Paychex has formed a partnership with Visier to provide HR and compensation analytics, and has also launched an AI-driven Retention Insights Solution. The company has been recognized as a leader in payroll services and has received top ratings from customers in various categories. As they head into the selling season, the company remains focused on delivering industry-leading HCM technology and solutions to help their clients succeed. Bob will now provide an update on the company's financial results.

In the fifth paragraph, the speaker reminds the audience that the commentary will include forward-looking statements and directs them to the appropriate disclosures. They then provide a summary of the company's second quarter financial results, including a 6% increase in total revenue and growth in both Management Solutions and PEO and Insurance Solutions. They also mention a 44% increase in interest on funds held for clients and a 7% increase in operating income. The results for the first six months of the year are also briefly mentioned.

The company's total expenses for the first half of the year increased by 5% to $1.5 billion, with operating margins improving by 60 basis points. Diluted earnings per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share both increased by 10%. The company maintains a strong financial position with high quality cash flows and earnings, with a balance of cash, restricted cash, and total corporate investments of over $1.4 billion and total borrowings of approximately $812 million. Cash flow from operations for the first six months was $1 billion, up 40% from the same period last year. The company returned $811 million to shareholders during this time. The company has raised guidance for certain measures and expects to remain within the ranges for others, assuming the current macro and competitive environment, which includes uncertainty regarding future interest rate changes and the economy.

The current outlook for the company includes unchanged growth for Management Solutions, increased growth for PEO and Insurance Solutions, and a slight decrease in total revenue growth expectations. Operating income margin is expected to be towards the upper end of the range, and other income is expected to be higher than previously projected. The effective income tax rate and adjusted diluted earnings per share are not expected to change. For the third quarter, total revenue growth is expected to be in the middle of the range, with operating margins also expected to be in the middle. The ERTC may pose a challenge in the second half of the year.

The speaker discusses the success of their company's ERTC sales over the past two-and-a-half years, with Q3 of last year being the biggest quarter. They mention that this may be a headwind in the back half of the year, but their current assumptions are subject to change. They also mention that their investor slides are available for more information. The speaker then opens the call for questions. One question is about revenue retention and client retention, which the speaker says is at record levels and improving. They attribute this to their focus on high-value segments, particularly in their HR outsourcing business. The speaker concludes by mentioning that they are pleased with their retention levels and will continue to update on the third quarter call.

Client retention has improved in the first half of the fiscal year compared to the previous year, thanks to the team's efforts. However, there have been more bankruptcies and non-controllable losses in the lower end of the market due to the high number of business starts during the COVID period. Overall, revenue retention remains at pre-pandemic levels, which were historically high. The company expects to be towards the high end of their guidance range due to positive trends in the PEO business and a small acquisition. They also anticipate seasonal hiring in their larger employee sizes.

The company saw less growth than expected in certain areas, causing them to adjust their guidance. While the PEO and Insurance categories have been strong, the Management Solutions side has faced some challenges. The PEO segment has seen strong demand and the company's value proposition is resonating well, despite potential pricing competition.

The company is satisfied with their performance in the PEO sector and has a strong pipeline for sales and insurance attachment. The ERTC is trending according to expectations and will have a slight negative impact in the back half of the year. The company will provide an update on the ERTC as promised.

The speaker discusses the potential impact of ERTC on the company's growth in the full year, estimating a 1% headwind. They also address the compliance measures taken by the company to manage any risks associated with the PEO and ERTC. In response to a question about the backlog of ERTC processing, the speaker explains that the company is amending returns and filing submissions for clients, which the IRS is still accepting. This will not result in a shift of revenue into the future.

The company is recognizing revenue as they continue to sell their services and the recent changes at the IRS have not affected their forecast. They are approaching a deadline for a benefit and have already identified and contacted most of their eligible clients. The company is hoping to stop talking about this benefit soon. The SECURE Act 2.0 is part of their selling season campaigns and they have had a solid performance in their 401(k) offerings.

The speaker discusses the challenges facing the retirement business and the need for education and pre-marketing to small business owners. They mention leveraging the SECURE Act to entice clients and finding success in getting them to understand the benefits. They also address the issue of late seasonal hiring in Management Solutions and note that small and mid-sized businesses are struggling to find qualified workers.

The high cost of capital and limited access to capital is causing businesses to be cautious about investing for growth. They are trying to do more with less and are hesitant to hire qualified employees due to past experiences with disciplinary issues and high rates for less qualified individuals. While there are no signs of mass downsizings, there is some rightsizing happening in the higher-end enterprise sector. In the mid-market, there is choppiness in hiring, especially in seasonal industries. Despite this, the PEO team, which operates in Florida, saw impressive growth numbers despite the headwind of less seasonal hiring. Similar trends were seen in the ASO and HCM mid-market businesses.

The speaker discusses the moderation seen in the small market, with clients either struggling to find suitable employees or being hesitant to add headcount. They also mention the strong performance in PEO and the success of their plan to target clients for PEO. This has led to a weaker performance in Management Solutions, but overall the PEO business is doing well. The speaker also mentions the upcoming 1/1 go-live period and expectations for at-risk health insurance attachment participation rates.

The PEO bookings accelerated in the quarter compared to the previous quarter. The company has made changes to the business and has seen a healthy pipeline in both PEO and mid-market HCM. The selling season for mid-market HCM and PEO is well underway, with a strong pipeline and enrollment in insurance. The company has seen an increase in penetration within the existing customer base. The team has done a great job in improving attach rates during this enrollment. The company expects to be back in line with historical levels after some degradation in the previous year. The lower end of the 5% to 6% growth for the year is related to Management Solutions.

The speaker explains that despite challenges such as lapping ERTC and a potential downturn in the SMB market, Paychex expects to maintain a 5% growth rate in the second half of the year. This will be driven by strong performance in ASO and retirement services, as well as a recent acquisition. The selling season for key markets is just beginning, and the pipelines for mid-market, PEO, and high-end ASO are full.

The company is entering the selling season in a small market and has a lot of execution to do in the next 60 days. They expect lower growth in Management Solutions in Q3 due to headwinds, but similar growth in PEO and Insurance as in Q2. The geography shift from last year is also impacting the ASO to PEO conversions. There is no specific selling season for these conversions and the company intends to continue with them as they bring in higher revenue and lifetime value. The analyst asks for segment level growth expectations for Q3 and Q4, and the company provides guidance.

The speaker discusses the company's performance in various areas, including the growth in the PEO sector and the competitive market in small business. They also mention being pleased with their balance of trade metrics and the use of AI in sales.

The company is using AI models and data to improve sales productivity, marketing targeting, and pricing management. They have a common platform for proposal and pricing management and are using AI models to determine the best price and discount for each client. They are also using voice analytics to provide real-time coaching to sales teams and adjust marketing messages and sales scripts accordingly.

The speaker discusses the various changes and tactics they have implemented in their go-to-market strategy, which have resulted in positive outcomes. They also mention that the market is competitive and there is aggressive pricing, but they have strong pricing power due to their value and experience.

The speaker discusses the company's high retention levels with existing clients as a reflection of their value proposition. They believe that small and medium-sized business owners prioritize value over price. The company remains competitive but does not engage in price wars. They have a good track record and are not giving away their services. In terms of seasonal employees, the company's expectations were not met due to lower hiring levels from larger clients. However, this does not mean that small businesses are getting rid of employees, they are just not adding as many as expected.

The speaker, Bob Schrader, responds to a question from analyst Samad Samana about the company's midterm financial goals. Schrader explains that the assumptions for the upper single-digit growth target for revenue take into account the current economic landscape, including potential peak employment and interest rates. He also mentions that the company has a track record of meeting similar growth targets and has a strategy of increasing their share of wallet from existing clients. Schrader concludes by stating that the company has pricing power and sees opportunities for growth in key solutions with low penetration rates.

The company has a strong value proposition and expects to continue capturing price in the future. They have used M&A to drive growth in the past and will continue to look for opportunities in the future. They are confident in their ability to deliver in the upper single digit level, but it may vary year by year. The company is fully staffed and plans to continue growing sales, while also focusing on productivity gains through go-to-market strategies. There are no plans to pull back on investing in growth.

John Gibson, the CEO of a company, is being asked questions by an operator about the company's recent performance. One question is about the impact of small and medium businesses being hesitant to invest in growth. Gibson explains that while there may be some hesitation due to lack of access to capital, it has not affected their willingness to buy ancillary services. He also mentions that the company has always shifted between offering ASO and PEO services, but the shift has been more successful than expected.

The company saw a shift towards HR outsourcing last year and has continued to see success in this area. They are now targeting clients who previously chose the ASO offering and are reintroducing them to the PEO model. They are also using analytics to identify clients who would benefit from the PEO model. The small acquisition made in the third quarter will not have a significant impact on revenue growth.

The speaker discusses the impact of the Employee Retention Tax Credit (ERTC) on the company's performance in the second half of last year. They also mention that seasonal hiring may be weaker due to smaller businesses not hoarding labor, but rather facing a deficit. The speaker believes that larger businesses may have engaged in labor hoarding, while small and mid-sized businesses focused on employee retention.

The Retention Insights AI offering was relaunched over a year ago to help small business owners retain their good employees. Small business owners are now focused on building a high-quality workforce and are seeking advice from HR generalists on how to lead and develop their employees. While there has been a rise in bankruptcies, business births still outnumber closures. This data should not be interpreted as a reflection of larger economic concerns.

The company has had high levels of new business in the past two years due to the pandemic, but many of those businesses are now going out of business. Bankruptcies have surpassed pre-COVID levels and are expected to continue rising. The mid and upper end of Management Solutions is seeing strong performance, potentially due to new tools introduced, and there is a mix of new logos and upsells to existing clients driving this strength.

Bob Schrader and John Gibson discuss the strength they have seen in the mid-market and the company's sales performance in Q2. They mention strong penetration within the existing client base and upsells into the base. They also note that there has been strength across the board, both in new logo acquisitions and upsells into the base. They mention that there may be a slightly slower pace in the selling season due to an increase in bankruptcies, but overall, they are seeing similar trends in SurePayroll and Paychex. They also mention the geography issue occurring at the same time, where they are upselling PEOs and moving them to a different geography on the P&L.

The company experienced a seasonal hiring impact in the upper end of the market which affected both the PEO and ASO segments. The healthcare inflation is expected to continue post-pandemic and the company has made changes to their healthcare lineups to remain competitive. Their apples-to-apples comparison was highly competitive and they have implemented creative solutions to keep their MLRs in-line.

The speaker is asking a question about the company's PEO segment and its market exposures by vertical. The company's CEO responds by stating that they do not have any high concentrations in their PEO and that historically, it has been an upsell within their payroll client base.

The company's payroll client base is diverse and not heavily concentrated in any particular industry due to their broad national presence. Organic growth in their Management Solutions segment was 4%, with a small acquisition and ERTC headwind in Q2. The CEO mentioned that the LTV for the PEO business is attractive, which is a change from previous years. He did not provide specific numbers but compared it to the ASO and HRO segments.

Bob Schrader and John Gibson discuss the high lifetime value of the PEO model in their business solutions. The PEO model offers clients a full solution, with health insurance, workers' comp insurance, and SUI. This creates "hooks" into clients and makes retention a big driver of lifetime value. The company's strategy is to move clients into the PEO model for its favorable economics. Tien-Tsin Huang asks about competition, and John Gibson explains that the HCM platform and HR professional services add value to the business.

The speaker discusses the profitability and success of their insurance business, attributing it to their strong management and predictable health inflation metric. They also mention the attractiveness of their PEO solution for larger clients and their low customer acquisition cost. The call concludes with well wishes for the holiday season and gratitude for the listeners' interest in Paychex.

This summary was generated with AI and may contain some inaccuracies.