$CME Q2 2024 AI-Generated Earnings Call Transcript Summary

CME

Jul 24, 2024

The paragraph introduces the CME Group Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Call and provides an overview of the call's agenda. It mentions the Safe Harbor language and the presence of the company's management team to answer questions. It also highlights the strong second quarter results and the importance of risk management in the market.

The company saw record quarterly revenue due to increased average daily volume and open interest in all asset classes. This growth has not been seen since 2010. The company also had record earnings and a 16% increase in average daily volume for physical commodity products. The Commodities portfolio has generated record revenue year-to-date. Total average daily volume increased by 13%, with record Treasury and Foreign Exchange ADV. The company also provides unmatched capital efficiencies for customers, resulting in margin savings of nearly $20 billion per day.

The company is proud of its record results and ability to consistently deliver earnings growth. They are constantly innovating to meet the long-term needs of their customers, including a partnership with Google Cloud to build a new private Google Cloud region and co-location facility. This will provide faster product development and access to Google's AI and data capabilities for risk management. The company acknowledges the current uncertainties in the US political landscape and global issues such as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine tensions, emphasizing the importance of risk management for markets.

CME Group had a successful second quarter with record-breaking earnings, revenue, and net income. The company's physical commodities asset classes and market data revenue saw significant growth, and cost discipline led to a high operating margin. Adjusted net income and earnings per share were both up 11% from the same period last year. The company also paid out dividends and has returned a total of $25 billion to shareholders since 2012.

The paragraph discusses the strong demand for the company's products in the second quarter, with a majority of trading days seeing high volume and all-time volume records being set in four of the first six months. The company attributes this success to their efficient management and focus on providing clients with risk management products and capital efficiencies. During a question-and-answer session, the company disclosed that they have saved their clients $20 billion in daily margin costs, with the majority of the savings coming from cross-margining and portfolio margining. The CEO also mentions that their competitor does not offer similar savings, providing the company with a competitive advantage.

The estimated split of revenue for futures and options is $12 billion, $7 billion for swaps with futures and options, and $1 billion for cash. The speaker, Terrence Duffy, says that competitors who do not have a futures business do not have any efficiencies to-date. Sunil Cutinho adds that competitors cannot provide efficiencies for options either. The company announced pricing increases at the beginning of the year and is on track to meet their guidance for revenue growth in the first half of the year.

Ben asks for an update on the DTCC cross-margining program and the efficiency progress. Sunil Cutinho responds that 10 clearing participants are taking advantage of the program and there are more in the pipeline. The savings have gone up to $1 billion, a record high. Ben also asks about the increase in WTI trading during European hours, and Derek Sammann responds that overall energy volumes are up 16% and open interest has grown 20%.

The speaker discusses the increase in non-US customers using WTI products to manage risk as US crude oil hits the global market. They also mention their growing share in options and potential competition in the future, and state that they will respond accordingly if necessary.

Terrence Duffy is confident in the strong position of his company, and does not see the need to switch to an unproven model for potential savings. He believes that competition will only make his company better, and is prepared to compete with any announced competitors. He also mentions the importance of following the rules of the United States government when it comes to listing and clearing US foreign sovereign debt.

Dan Fannon from Jefferies asks about the concerns surrounding giving up jurisdiction to Great Britain and the potential impact on efficiency. He also asks about the pricing dynamics in futures and options, specifically the decline in year-over-year rates despite a positive mix shift towards long-term rates. Lynne Fitzpatrick explains that the increase in volume and higher contribution of treasuries are factors contributing to this decline.

Dan Fannon asks Lynne Fitzpatrick about expenses for the first half of the year, which are tracking below the guidance. Fitzpatrick explains that the full year guidance still stands, with a $60 million increase in the second half of the year. This is due to increased spending on marketing, retail marketing, and technology, as well as project-based work and compensation. However, there is a decrease in CapEx and depreciation. Fitzpatrick reassures that the increase is due to various factors, not just the typical marketing spend in the fourth quarter.

Ken Vroman, a representative from CME, discusses the company's partnership with Google and their plans to operate in the cloud. They are excited about the new facility and have extended their relationship with Google until 2037. They are currently working with customers to ensure the technology and ecosystem are correct for the new facility. In addition, they are migrating their core business to the cloud and have received approval from the CFTC to run clearing in the cloud. This will not have an impact on current expenses, but may affect future expenses.

The upcoming election and potential change in administration could impact CME over the next 12-24 months, but it is difficult to predict the exact impact. The uncertainty of the election will cause markets to manage risk regardless of who wins, as there is often a difference between campaign rhetoric and actual actions taken in office. Markets may become skittish or excited depending on various factors, such as the potential influence of President Trump on the Federal Reserve.

The speaker discusses the possibility of changes in the administration and how it could affect the independence of the Federal Reserve. They also mention the importance of paying attention to market volatility and how it has been impacting various asset classes. The speaker's colleague adds that despite any potential changes, the market has been strong and showing record levels in both volume and open interest.

The company's risk management product is in high demand in the current environment. The stock has been under pressure due to interest rates and competition, but the company continues to have record quarters. The company is reviewing its capital allocation policy and will communicate any changes to shareholders and analysts.

Chris Allen asks about potential growth opportunities for natural gas in the energy sector, specifically related to the increasing demand for AI-driven data centers. He wonders about the potential impact on volumes and whether data centers currently hedge their energy exposure. Terrence Duffy and Derek Sammann discuss how natural gas is expected to see a material increase in demand due to the energy transition and how this is already reflected in record results for natgas futures and options.

The speaker discusses the growing global demand for natural gas, particularly in the EMEA region, and the company's strong position in the market. They also mention the potential for natural gas to play a larger role in energy consumption, not just for AI but also for powering homes and countries. The speaker agrees with the premise that natural gas will be a vital fuel for the future. In response to a question about improving dealer relationships, the speaker acknowledges that price is a key factor but also emphasizes the importance of natural gas in powering grids and the need for stronger relationships with dealers.

Terrence Duffy explains that the relationships with dealers are good and that they work closely with them. He also mentions that investing in the dealers and providing them with $20 billion in savings has strengthened the relationships. He dismisses claims of a fracture in the relationships and emphasizes the value that the exchange brings to the dealers. A question is then asked by Chris Allen, followed by a question from Craig Siegenthaler.

During a follow-up call, CME Group clarified that their capital efficiency for cross-margining CME futures with CME interest rate swaps is not 20-25% less than future-to-future clearing, as previously reported. They have strong liquidity across all rates products, including a dominant market share in Latin American currencies. The growth of open interest in these products has also contributed to capital efficiencies. CME Group is the only clearing house that offers capital efficiencies between futures, options, cash, and swaps for dollar rates. They have over 3,300 large open interest holders, and many firms are moving their swaps business to CME to achieve offsets.

The $20 billion in capital efficiencies is significant for CME, as it is driven by the 3,300 large open interest holders who direct where their trades go. There may be concerns about CME's ability to provide total savings and the efficiency of portfolio margin between US rates futures and last in interest rate swaps. However, with SOFR being the only product with 100% open interest across futures and options, CME is in a unique position to unlock these savings and provide capital efficiencies across various product types. The main takeaway is not just about the mathematical result, but the overall benefit of using SOFR against OIS swaps, treasury futures, SOFR options, and cash positions at FICC.

CME's cloud announcement will provide clients with access to Google's infrastructure as a service offering, which will enable them to access capital efficiencies and trade combinations. The new co-location facility and matching engine will not have a significant impact on CME's connectivity, co-location, or low latency data feed revenue. Additionally, the cloud data facility is conveniently located across the street, addressing concerns from clients about potential disruptions.

The company allowed customers to choose and migrate to the cloud at their own pace and based on the value proposition. The facility in Aurora allows for a seamless migration between current infrastructure and the infrastructure being built for the future. The company is working closely with customer input to ensure a smooth transition. It is clarified that Globex was not a floor-based product. The impact on CME revenue when customers migrate to Google infrastructure is uncertain at this point.

The speaker discusses the upcoming facility and its potential impact on data access and streams. They also mention the recent announcements from FMX and the response from their sales team, who have been engaging with customers and receiving positive feedback about the strength and resilience of their rates business. The value proposition of the facility is also mentioned as a small part of their overall offering.

The speaker explains that they are focused on highlighting the key aspects of their value proposition, such as deep liquidity and capital efficiencies, to their customers. They have not heard any concerns from their customers and have seen an increase in trading volume. They have been receiving calls from the business community about creating more efficiencies and working together. The speaker is then asked about the potential impact of the Fed cutting rates on the rates franchise and how it may affect the types of instruments traded and the capture rate.

Tim McCourt discusses the current state of the market and how CME is well positioned to take advantage of the uncertainty. They have a variety of tools, such as SOFR and T-bills, to trade on both the short and long ends of the curve. They are also investing in product innovation and capital efficiencies. The RPC for the complex is difficult to predict and is affected by factors such as the mix of trading methods and the diversity of traders. CME is seeing growth in the complex and expects to see more non-members and different types of participants entering the market.

The speaker notes that there may be a difference in the RPC going forward, depending on the mix of members, non-members, and participants. They also mention that there are conversations happening about increasing efficiencies for customers, particularly in regards to freeing up balance sheets for dealers. The speaker is cautious about discussing any potential strategic actions, but mentions that there are ongoing conversations in this area.

The operator introduces a question from Alex Blostein about CME Group's long-term revenue growth algorithm. Blostein asks if the current 2-3% pricing increase strategy is still reasonable and how the company plans to offset any potential challenges. CEO Terrence Duffy responds that the company does not believe in raising prices just for the sake of it, but rather focuses on adding value for clients. He mentions the potential of Google AI and other risk management tools to enhance clients' books. CFO Lynne Fitzpatrick adds that the company takes a bottoms-up approach to pricing and always considers value for clients.

The company's strategy for transitioning to the Google Cloud platform is still intact and will be implemented on a market-by-market basis. The timing for the new platform's availability is still being determined, but the physical building is currently being built in Dallas. The disaster recovery site will also be located in Dallas. Customers will have access to the new platform for testing and experimentation in early 2026. The company will give at least 18 months' notice before starting to migrate markets, and it is still unclear which customers will choose to use the new platform and how long the transition process will take.

The company is in the early stages of providing choice and optionality to customers, and it is too soon to speculate on what specific actions customers will take. The company is excited about the engineering that has gone into this capability and believes it will be enabling for customers. The decision to move to Google Cloud will depend on the platform's speed and functionality. The company is paying competitive rates and getting good spreads on its collateral balances.

CME Group has announced plans to offer treasury clearing and is currently working with the SEC to obtain regulatory approvals. The company expects to have all the necessary information submitted to the SEC by mid-September.

The speaker explains that there is a public approval process for their plans and products, and that they are currently focused on getting their new clearing facility up and running. They also mention their partnership with FICC and their intention to offer complementary services to market participants.

The speaker emphasizes the importance of partnership with clients in bringing their solution to market, with a goal of being ready to test in the second half of next year. They also mention a recent announcement about a co-location facility with Google, clarifying that they will not own or build the facility and that there will be some costs associated with usage. The last question asks about the volume from recently onboarded retail brokers, to which the speaker mentions setting records in certain micro contracts.

In response to a question about the growth of retail clients in Q2, CME Group executives Julie Winkler and Terrence Duffy attribute it to the focus on new channel partners and a diverse product offering, as well as strong marketing and education partnerships. They also note that there has been a significant increase in interest from APAC retail clients in the dollar-denominated Equity Index complex, particularly in the mini and micro NASDAQ suites. This has allowed them to outpace competitors in the ETF market.

The speaker discusses the success of their complex and investments in intellectual property, as well as the positive results in metals activity among retail clients and the addition of new brokers. They attribute this growth to having the right products for different types of participants. The speaker also mentions plans to give clients access to Google's AI capabilities and mentions potential use cases and target market participants.

The CME Group is focused on data and analytics capabilities, including AI, to improve risk management and trading strategies for their clients. They are not disclosing specific details about which clients will use AI, as each client is figuring it out in their own way. The company is pleased with their record results and will continue to work towards bringing value to shareholders. The conference call has concluded.

This summary was generated with AI and may contain some inaccuracies.

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